"Our Energy Facilities in the Aegean Protect Our Soldiers in Cyprus"
Serhan ÜNAL- TENVA Director
Turkey, the first wind power plant will be built to the sea, the Black Sea in the northern part of the Aegean coast of Thrace or intends to build its shores. For this reason, it is time to reassess the safety of our energy facilities, especially concentrated in the northern Aegean. There are other additional reasons that make this necessary.
Seizing the opportunity of Turkey's foreign policy agenda and intensive military operations in Greece, densification of aggressive intervention in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean geopolitical heat, the factors that negatively affect relations between Ankara and Athens. The fact that Ankara's relations with Washington and Brussels are upset also strengthens Athens's hand. The further energy investment in the northern Aegean will increase the proportion of our critical energy infrastructure, which is already open to the Greek air force. The largest facility in Turkey's best to avoid this situation, Turkish troops stationed in Cyprus.
Within the framework of the Renewable Energy Resource Areas (YEKA) strategy, it is planned to build offshore wind energy plants, designed as a pillar of wind energy projects, on the Aegean coast, home to many other wind energy installations. In recent years, marine wind energy plants, which are rapidly increasing in economic feasibility and experiencing less social acceptability, are increasingly attracting interest. The sea of Turkey's wind energy potential is thought to be around 30,000 MW. In many of these projects, which are also of interest to the countries of Northwest Europe with limited land areas, production is not as fascinating as the usual wind energy plants. For this reason, electric energy has more potential to contribute to supply security. The northern Aegean coast, at the top of the strongest marine winds, already has a number of critical energy infrastructures; Moreover, the region's geography makes these facilities vulnerable to possible attacks by Greek air forces. In fact, Turkey and Greece, because of geographical and cultural proximity, the two countries could agree well with each other. Although inter-communal relations are appropriate to rise on the basis of sympathy, interstate relations are often tense. The main reason for the tensions of the relationship is the opportunistic approach of Greece to break the Turkish-Greek balance in the Aegean, which was laid in the base Lausanne. The perception of the threat posed by many issues relating to the sharing of the Aegean Sea, especially on the issue of Cyprus, is pushing mutual capitals to compromise. As such, Ankara,
Indeed, although the war is unlikely in the short term, Turkey and Greece, the main function of which is providing security responsibility of each State, as well as all capitals, in Ankara, imprisons the obligation to be prepared against the most adverse scenario. The safest way of securing security is not to cause a gunfight, but to maintain peace. The simplest way to maintain peace is to have deterrence. This situation is summarized in the discipline of International Relations, as "ready cenge, si i sen h u al salah" (Si vis pacem, para bellum). In the current situation, especially the Petkim peninsula located north of Izmir (Aliaga peninsula), the energy sector in terms of the most important regions of Turkey (Figure 1). Among the leading facilities on the peninsula and around Tüpraş Aliağa refinery, Star refinery, Ege Gas LNG terminal, Petkim Port, has facilities such as Turkey's first FSRU terminal. In addition, many gas companies have infrastructure facilities in this region. With a rough estimate, it can be said that only the energy infrastructure investment in the region has economic value between 15-20 billion dollars.
It is also a fact that these facilities have high strategic value in addition to economic value. It is precisely for this reason, will occur in case of a conflict between Turkey and Greece, the Greek air force will target these plants is likely to be among the first places. Greece, the critical energy infrastructure located in the red zone with a sudden attack by targeting major economic and strategic could harm Turkey (Figure 1). Greece air bases in Turkey thanks to its proximity to mainland Greece to critical energy infrastructure and air force, struck within minutes of this property can be returned to the safety of their facilities with the defense field. In addition to simpler systems such as the MIM-23 Hawk, the Greek airspace is also protected by advanced systems such as the S-300 and Patriot.
Moreover, about half an hour's flight away from mainland of Greece with Turkey and near the Greek island to Turkey in terms of Athens due to the lack of vitality bearing target, in terms of responding to Turkey's aggressive weak hand. While the structure of the land link between the two countries limits the ability of the Turkish land forces to respond quickly, the breadth and depth of the maritime area of Greece makes it impossible for the Turkish naval power to achieve absolute superiority. Also, in case of a possible war, Washington, mainly to stop the conflict as a civil party in the event of international actors, therefore, of Turkey, it will be forced to sit at the table without given enough money and probably say the degree of certainty can not find a chance to compensate for the huge losses suffered.
Therefore, one can use in Turkey ability to respond effectively to Greece, Turkey corps stationed in Cyprus. In an armed conflict between Greece and Turkey, the Turkish forces could take control of the southern part of Cyprus; so Ankara can create an unacceptable cost to Athens. In this respect, Turkish troops in Cyprus carry a kind of "second strike" against Greece's 'first strike' capability. If Turkey is especially critical energy infrastructure to increase the density in the northern Aegean, it should consider certain issues and balance in the eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish military presence in Cyprus is important not only for the security of Cyprus or the eastern Mediterranean equation, but also for the security of our infrastructure in the Aegean. In short, the guarantee of the Turkish-Greek balance in the Aegean,
Note: For more detailed information, please see: Mustafa Kibaroğlu, "Cyprus Strategic Position and Annan Plan in Ege-Eastern Mediterranean Equilibrium", Mülkiye Magazine, Issue 242, p. 85-94; Mustafa Kibaroglu, "Turkey's Deterrent", The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Volume 55, Issue 2.
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