Turkey has long taken for granted that its
geography will ensure that its Western allies, and chiefly the United
States, cannot afford to turn their backs on their strategic
partnership. Regardless of its human rights record, the slow erosion of
checks and balances, and limits on fair political representation, Turkey
has sensed—and not without reason—that its military alliance with the
United States cannot falter. If the Trump administration favors
isolationism, the fate of stumbling democracies far from its shores will
matter little and Ankara may be proven right again.
Pro-government media and political pundits in
Turkey have been openly sympathetic toward Trump. A less interventionist
United States that stays out of Turkey’s backyard in the Middle East is
seen as a welcome departure. It may mean greater free rein for Turkey’s
ill-defined ambitions in the region and even make its responsibilities
as a NATO member more fluid and permissive. There is a high level of
uncertainty at the moment about what the Trump administration’s foreign
policy toward the Middle East will look like, but what is clear is that
Turkey will likely pursue a more hybrid set of relations that may at
times contradict those of the United States. The challenge will be if
and when such contradictions become the new normal.
Turkey’s government is no stranger to the
brand of bombastic right-wing populism that rewarded Trump with the
presidency. And its people are familiar with the resulting corrosive and
divisive implications for those who dare to dissent. The resilience of
populist politics in Turkey, the Brexit vote, and now Trump’s triumph,
are not unrelated events. They point to fragmentation in the global
system, driven in part by a growing sense of inequality between the
haves and have-nots, while progressive opposition movements rely on
worn-out tropes that no longer appear to resonate.
source:
Burcu A. Ozcelic
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